Worth Discussing

Romney's Opportunity

John Tabin | The American Spectator | October 3, 2012

Tonight's debate, which is expected to focus on domestic policy, may present Mitt Romney with a real opportunity to shift the race in his favor. Consider this nugget from a survey conducted for NPR by Resurgent Republic and Democracy Corps (a Republican and a Democratic firm, respectively), based on a national poll of registered voters weighted to oversample battleground-state voters:...

...These are the voters Romney needs to connect with. Romney already has a slight advantage with independents; Obama's persistent lead in most polls, including this one, is based on the apparent durability of Obama's coalition: Party identification samples look more like the 2008 electorate, with 7-point Democratic advantage, than like the partisan parity of the 2004 election or the 4-point Democratic advantage of the 2000 election. The party ID gap tightens when polls screen for likely voters (rather than registered voters), or when pollsters weight to a best guess on party ID (Rasmussen weights to the party ID results from his last six weeks of surveys, currently showing a 2-4 point Democratic advantage) but it's rarely enough to give Romney better than a tie.

Filed under: Political Climate, President Obama, and 2012 Election